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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."